The publisher:wanzhi|viewed: 311
Judging from the example of the steel industry, it is rare for the current round of overcapacity to have such a wide range, large quantity, and such deep impact. The general background of this round of overcapacity is the decline in external demand caused by the international financial crisis. In particular, my country’s economic development has entered a new normal. The growth rate has changed from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. The transition of comparative advantages is in the throes of structural adjustment. As a result, during the period of rapid economic growth in China, the production capacity built according to the original comparative advantages has appeared in excess. Some analysts believe that the lack of funds for galvanized flat steel mills can obtain support from foreign investment. “For small enterprises or private enterprises, the introduction of foreign investment will help optimize the investment structure and promote innovation and upgrading.” It is too early for the rebar futures to reverse: Last week, the northern rebar spot market price rebounded sharply on the basis of the continuous increase in billet quotations. The Beijing spot rebar price rose by 150 yuan/ton in three days, and the futures market also rebounded, the main force was 1510 The contract rebounded by 67 yuan/ton, and the increase was obviously not as good as the spot price. Spot prices in East China, South China and Southwest China also rose. Under the influence of this atmosphere, the rebar price reversal is endless, but the author believes that the domestic and international economic environment is not conducive to the recovery of the steel industry, the continued downturn in downstream demand and the increased sales pressure of steel mills suppressed the rebound in rebar prices, and galvanized Flat steel prices will consolidate and oscillate at low levels for a long time. The just-concluded National Two Sessions made clear the general tone of stabilizing economic development and strengthening economic transformation, increasing resource and environmental constraints, rising costs of labor and other factors, and the development mode of high input, high consumption, and emphasis on quantitative expansion is no longer sustainable. These contents have pre-limited the possibility of sharp rise in rebar from the capital and demand. As an overcapacity industry, the steel industry itself will no longer receive too much support from national policies. At present, the entire industry is eliminating and merging some low-tech backward production capacity and steel companies that are not suitable for survival through market-oriented methods. The decline in the profitability of the steel industry is not only a consequence of overcapacity, but also a direct manifestation of overcapacity. Severe overcapacity and the industry as a whole are at the edge of profit and loss, which reduces the ability of enterprises to transform and upgrade, and seriously affects the healthy development of the industry. Regarding the market outlook, Yangtze River Securities believes that as the Spring Festival goes away, the temperature picks up, and signs of seasonal demand are beginning to appear. Since the growth rate of real estate investment has been better than the past two years, it is generally optimistic about the seasonal recovery of demand in this round. At the same time, it is superimposed on the current industry pattern of low prices, low inventory, and low output, and follow-up yuan. The cost of raw materials has continued to rise since the beginning of this week, and market confidence has been boosted. It is reported that there are few cold-rolled resources in the market at present, and shortages in some areas are serious. The inventory pressure of 65Mn steel plate merchants is not obvious. At this stage, market demand has not yet increased, and shipments are average, but it does not seem to be a long-term solution to only rely on price adjustments to stimulate the market, so most merchants choose to stay on the sidelines.